A bettor makes many bets has a yield * of between 3% and 7% after about approximately 5000 bets. The more bets per year we, the lower the performance, called “yield” (average return per bet). If we are always in those percentages mentioned, we are not having much room on the bookmaker .
We must also take into account the variance , which is another factor affecting the bankroll in the short term (in the long run the real value is almost identical to the expected value). The variance can be positive or negative, that is, we can be well above the expected value, or well below it. Therefore it is important to have a bankroll that supports these ups and downs.
It is important from time to time, analyze our way to bet and the results we are getting, whether they’re on a winning streak or losing, to adjust and improve our way of facing sports betting. A statistical strategy based solely on pure and is doomed to have a negative expectation. In betting there are many variables to consider besides statistics. Injured, sanctioned matches selection, equipment trends across the board, and local, on the road, weather, the umpires of each meeting, possible tactical variations in the alignments, etc.
To make a pool should be studied most of these prognostic variables and analyze what we give the party a particular level. It is a costly in terms of time but, no doubt, is the most reliable (not mean it is accurate obviously). A good bet to be worked and studied as if we were to play us all our money on that bet. We must launch forecasts being totally sure that they have a positive expectation in the long and in so doing, is the only way to think long-term green, which is what interests us.
